The Kelly Criterion and the Martingale Gambling Systems

When you’re taking part in professional sports betting should you have a sports gambling system? Some people swear by systems, though we recommend sports betting tips be used in moderation. In this article we’re going to look at two free systems: the “Kelly Criterion” and the “Martingale System.”

Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion was created by physicist Edward L. Kelly, who developed the system in 1956 when he was working for AT&T Bell Laboratories. Originally the sports gambling system was intended to be used for thoroughbred racing but it has since been used by many gamblers in other sports.

The Kelly Criterion is a three-step sports gambling system that based on statistical analysis. It is helpful in determining how much of your bankroll you should bet on a given event. Here are the steps:

• Multiply the odds of the game or event by the probability of winning.
• Use the answer from step one and subtract the probability of losing the bet from it.
• Divide the result of the second step by the odds.

Here’s an example of how to use the Kelly Criterion for sports betting:

• First you need to estimate how many of your bets you win. Let’s say it’s 60% or .600.  Then you need to consider the odds involved. If a team is at -300 on the moneyline, then the odds of them winning are 75% (.750).  You multiply these two numbers: .60 x .75 = .450
• Next you need to know your failure rate. If your success rate is 60%, then your failure rate is 100%- 60% = 40% (.400). Take the answer from Step 1 and from it subtract the failure rate. .450- .400 = .050.
• Finally, take the answer to Step 2, which is .050, and divide it by the odds of winning, which is .750.  The answer is .066 or 6.6%

Thus, using the Kelly Criterion you would wager 6.6% of your bankroll on the game. Note: this system really only works when you’re wagering on the favored team. It’s suggested that you use this sports gambling system as a guideline, figuring in other factors before deciding how much to wager.

Martingale System

In 18th century France, a collection of wagering systems was created and named the Martingale System. Today’s sports gambling system that bears its name utilizes just one of the original methods.

The Martingale System starts with the gambler wagering one unit on an event. If they win, they bet one unit on the next contest. Once they lose, they double their wager on the next event. If they lose again, they double their bet again. They continue doubling until they win. Then the bettor goes back to a single unit wager.

The idea behind the Martingale System is that after losing eventually the bettor will win one a doubled wager and make back their loses. There are three problems with the system:

• This can cost you big-time very quickly if you lose.
• With doubling up, you don’t actually win your cash back even if you do hit because you lose on commissions.
• The system is based on the belief that eventually you must win a bet. But all wagers are independent occurrences with none affecting the others.

The Martingale System can use up your cash quickly and although some sports bettors swear by it, we advise caution.

The Usefulness of a System

When you bet on sports no system takes away the need to analyze each team and matchup. Still, money management, as it is with any type of gambling, is key. The Kelley Criterion can help you in this area, while the Martingale System is for the truly aggressive gambler who is willing to take high risks repeatedly.