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What are the Odds

Toss a coin in the air 3 or 4 times and you can bet tails will come up at least one time. Having said this, you now know essentially all one needs to know about the exhilarating world of casino gambling and the nature of probability. Well, with regard to winning (and losing) at those so-called ‘luck-based' casino games, that is.


Although various gambling games such as poker and even blackjack entail certain amounts of skill in order for you to win, other games like slots, roulette, craps, and lotteries are considered games requiring no more than good luck. Very good luck! Not surprisingly, there are folks on either side of this debate. Or, as somebody once coined the expression, "There are 2 sides on every coin."


Sheer Luck or Sherlock?
On one side of the barney are those convinced that the outcomes of some gambling games are totally based on luck, while other people hold the opposite view firm in their belief that winning is the result of sheer talent. Then there's that grey area. (There's always a grey area). These are the games which supposedly require both expertise and good fortune to win.


Some gambling folk will tell you that in order to win at the slots, you had better apply some skill. Indeed, knowing how to select the right one-arm bandit - that is - knowing which is most likely to spew out cash soon, is probably a slot player's most important move.


The entire concept of probability is a peculiar one, primarily because there's no natural law that guarantees an incident or end result will in fact happen. Though a ‘probable' outcome will likely occur, you know what they say, "I would not bet on it."


Whether it is just one coin toss or a billion, the odds that the coin will land tails up or heads are always fifty-fifty. However, it's imperative to appreciate the difference between the likelihood of an outcome occurring, and the actual outcome. Assuming that definite results will indeed ensue is about the best you can do. To believe that the laws of probability can be trusted to forecast a win or loss is not just foolish, doing so could wind up costing you plenty of dough.


In Gambling - as in Life - There are no Guarantees (Sorry)
Theoretically, if you flip a coin 1,000 times both heads & tails will have the same chances of landing face up. In practice, however, one side will likely appear more times than the other. Flip the coin 10,000 times and the results will be basically the same, percentage-wise.


It's a Numbers Game
As we said earlier, with each coin toss there's a 50-50 chance that tails (or heads) will result. The odds that tails will come up twice in a row are 1 in 4. The chances that tails will appear three times in a row are 1 in 8, and 1 in 16 that tails will land 4 times in a row. Like we said, "It's a Numbers Game." Go figure.



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